version: "1.0.1" name: ads-budget description: "Budget allocation and bidding strategy review across all ad platforms. Evaluates spend distribution, bidding strategy appropriateness, scaling readiness, and identifies campaigns to kill or scale. Uses 70/20/10 rule, 3x Kill Rule, and 20% scaling rule. Use when user says budget allocation, bidding strategy, ad spend, ROAS target, media budget, or scaling." user-invokable: false tested_date: 2026-05-17 tested_with: claude-code v2.x

<!-- Updated: 2026-04-13 | v1.5 -->

Budget Allocation & Bidding Strategy

Process

1. Collect budget and performance data across all active platforms
2. Read ads/references/budget-allocation.md for allocation framework
3. Read ads/references/bidding-strategies.md for strategy decision trees
4. Read ads/references/benchmarks.md for CPC/CPA benchmarks
5. Read ads/references/scoring-system.md for health score algorithm
6. Validate: confirm spend data covers ≥14 days before evaluating kill/scale decisions
7. Evaluate budget allocation, bidding strategy, and scaling readiness
8. Validate: verify kill list candidates have sufficient data (≥20 clicks or ≥$100 spend) before recommending pause
9. Generate recommendations with kill list and scale list

Budget Allocation Framework

70/20/10 Rule

• 70% on proven channels (consistent ROAS/CPA targets met)
• 20% on scaling channels (showing promise, need more data)
• 10% on testing channels (new platforms, audiences, creatives)

Platform Selection Matrix

Budget Sufficiency Rules

Bidding Strategy Evaluation

Google Ads Bidding Decision Tree

Start
├─ <30 conversions/month?
│  └─ Use Maximize Clicks (cap CPC at benchmark)
│     └─ When >30 conv/month → Maximize Conversions
├─ 30-50 conversions/month?
│  └─ Use Maximize Conversions
│     └─ When stable CPA → Target CPA
├─ >50 conversions/month?
│  └─ Use Target CPA
│     └─ When revenue tracking → Target ROAS
└─ Revenue tracking active + >50 conv/month?
   └─ Use Target ROAS

Meta Ads Bidding

• Lowest Cost (default): best for volume, may have CPA variance
• Cost Cap: sets CPA ceiling, may reduce volume
• Bid Cap: maximum bid per auction, most control
• ROAS Goal: target return on ad spend
• CBO vs ABO: CBO for proven campaigns, ABO for testing

LinkedIn Bidding

• Cost Per Send (CPS): for Message Ads
• Manual CPC: recommended starting point for cost control
• Cost Cap: efficiency at scale with predictable CPA
• Maximum Delivery: highest volume, most expensive. Use only for scale with established data
• Target Cost: for predictable CPA

TikTok Bidding

• Lowest Cost: maximize conversions within budget (volume)
• Cost Cap: set maximum CPA (efficiency)
• Bid Cap: maximum bid per impression
• Budget ≥50x CPA per ad group for learning phase exit

Microsoft Bidding

• Mirror Google strategy but bid 20-35% lower
• Manual CPC for low-volume campaigns (Enhanced CPC deprecated on Google March 2025; verify Microsoft availability before recommending)
• Target CPA / Target ROAS for automated (requires 15+ conversions/30 days)

v1.5 Bidding Innovations

Google AI Max for Search

• 14% avg conversion lift for non-retail brands at similar CPA/ROAS, up to 27% for exact/phrase-match-heavy campaigns (Google Ads blog, May 2025)
• Independent data is more conservative: median +13% revenue / +16% CPA across 250+ campaigns (ALM Corp)
• Requires strong negative keyword lists (AI Max casts a wider net)
• DSA likely consolidated into AI Max by Q2 2026
• Best for: accounts with mature conversion tracking and keyword history

TikTok Smart+ Modular Control (2025)

• Lock targeting, creative, budget, or placement independently (mix of manual and AI)
• TikTok platform median ROAS 1.41-1.67 in 2025; Smart+ delivers ~53% lift over standard campaigns (TikTok for Business)
• October 2025 update added module-by-module control after early-2025 control complaints
• Best for: advertisers wanting partial AI control without full black-box

Apple Ads Maximize Conversions

• GA: February 26, 2026. AI-powered auto-bidder for Apple Ads
• Target CPA based on weekly average (not per-conversion)
• Daily budget must be >=5x target CPA for stable performance
• Two-week learning phase required; avoid changes during learning
• Currently supports installs only (not post-install events)

Meta Advantage+ Bidding

• Automatic optimization across all placements within Advantage+ Sales campaigns
• Budget automatically shifts to highest-performing placements in real time
• Best combined with broad targeting and high creative volume

Scaling Assessment

Ready to Scale (Green Light)

• CPA consistently below target for 2+ weeks
• ≥50 conversions per week (learning phase exited)
• CTR stable or improving
• ROAS above target
• No creative fatigue signals

20% Rule

Never increase budget by more than 20% at a time:

• Week 1: $100/day → $120/day
• Week 2: $120/day → $144/day
• Week 3: $144/day → $173/day
• Monitor 3-5 days after each increase for performance stability

Scaling Methods

1. Vertical: increase budget on winning campaigns (20% rule)
2. Horizontal: duplicate winning campaigns to new audiences
3. Platform expansion: add budget on new platforms
4. Geographic expansion: test new markets/regions
5. Format expansion: test new ad formats on same platform

Kill List Assessment

3x Kill Rule

• Any campaign/ad group with CPA >3x target → flag for pause
• Review spend in last 14 days with no conversions → flag for pause
• Creative with CTR >50% below platform benchmark → flag for creative kill

Kill Decision Framework

MER (Marketing Efficiency Ratio)

MER = Total Revenue / Total Marketing Spend

• Assess blended efficiency across all platforms
• Target MER varies by business: 3x-10x depending on margins
• Use MER to evaluate overall health, not just per-platform ROAS
• Incrementality testing recommended for MER accuracy

Output

Budget & Bidding Assessment

Budget Allocation Health
 
Allocation Strategy:  ████████░░  XX/100
Bidding Strategies:   ██████████  XX/100
Scaling Readiness:    ███████░░░  XX/100
Budget Sufficiency:   █████░░░░░  XX/100

Deliverables

• BUDGET-STRATEGY-REPORT.md: Full allocation and bidding analysis
• Current vs recommended budget split (pie chart data)
• Bidding strategy recommendations per platform/campaign
• Scale list: campaigns ready for more budget
• Kill list: campaigns/ad groups to pause immediately
• MER analysis and trend
• Quick Wins for immediate budget optimization