version: "1.0.1" name: portfolio-pacing-rules description: Portfolio-specific pacing thresholds, budget tolerances, and brand caps. Auto-invoke when analyzing pacing variance, checking if accounts are on pace, investigating underspending/overspending, or discussing portfolio-specific rules (Portfolio A ±5%, Portfolio B ±8%, Portfolio C). Also loads when user mentions specific portfolios by name. allowed-tools: [Read]

Portfolio Pacing Rules Skill

Purpose: Provides portfolio-specific pacing thresholds, budget tolerances, brand caps, and performance targets that auto-load when analyzing account performance.

Type: Domain knowledge skill (auto-invoked)

What This Skill Deliberately Does NOT Do

• Pull the data. It defines the thresholds; the pacing numbers come from your own tracking sheet and the Google Ads API (see Data Sources Referenced).
• Calculate pacing. Variance is auto-calculated in your Pacing Dashboard — this skill sets and interprets the tolerance bands, it doesn't recompute the number.
• Size the budget change. It holds the conservative 5-10% ceiling; the actual increase math is `budget-recommendation-calculator`, which consumes the tolerance defined here.
• Select or investigate accounts. `portfolio-health-prioritization` picks which accounts to act on and `underspending-investigation` diagnoses them; this skill provides the thresholds both rely on.
• Execute changes. It is protocol-only — no mutations happen here.

Quick Reference: Pacing Thresholds by Portfolio

Portfolio A

• Budget Pacing: ±5% monthly tolerance (95%-105%)
• Brand Campaign Cap: 15% maximum of total account spend
• Primary KPI: ROAS (Conversion Value / Cost)
• Warning Zone: >±5% (investigate)
• Critical Zone: >±10% (immediate action)

Portfolio B

• Budget Pacing: ±8% monthly tolerance (92%-108%)
• Brand Campaign Cap: None (no restriction)
• Primary KPI: Cost per Conversion (testing ROAS on some accounts)
• Warning Zone: >±8% (investigate)
• Critical Zone: >±10% (immediate action)

Portfolio C

• Budget Pacing: ±8% monthly tolerance (92%-108%)
• Brand Campaign Cap: None (no restriction)
• Primary KPI: Cost per Conversion
• Warning Zone: >±8% (investigate)
• Critical Zone: >±10% (immediate action)

Universal Pacing Rules (All Portfolios)

Critical Thresholds

• Critical: >±15% variance = Immediate investigation required (KPI miss, client escalation)
• High Priority: >±10% variance = Requires investigation
• Warning: >±8% variance = Monitor closely
• On Pace: Within portfolio tolerance = Acceptable

Month-Start Normalization (Days 1-5)

• Early-month variance is expected (budget ramp-up period)
• Reduce severity tier for pacing variance in first 5 days
• Full threshold rules apply after Day 5
• Note: "Early-month variance expected to normalize by Day 7"

Portfolio Constraints

Portfolio A Accounts

Strategic Context:

• Budget pacing is non-negotiable (strict client KPI)
• ROAS optimization happens WITHIN pacing constraint
• Brand campaigns capped at 15% despite high efficiency (30-40x ROAS)
• AI campaigns (Pmax/DGen) are workhorses (60-70% of spend)
• Budget reallocation > budget cuts (maintain spend, improve efficiency)
• No shared budgets (need granular control for tight pacing)

Account Examples:

• Acme Plumbing (CID: [CUSTOMER_ID])
• Best HVAC (CID: [CUSTOMER_ID])
• City Dental (CID: [CUSTOMER_ID])
• Account D (multiple accounts)

When to flag:

• Pacing variance >±5%
• Brand spend >15% of total
• Any variance >±10% with <1 week left in month

Portfolio B Accounts

Strategic Context:

• More relaxed pacing tolerance (±8% vs Portfolio A's ±5%)
• No brand campaign cap
• Primary metric: Cost per Conversion (some testing ROAS)
• Shared budgets common (GEO + Bedroom campaigns)
• Budget flexibility allows for performance optimization

Account Structure:

• Original "Core 4": Brand, GEO, Bedroom, GDN Remarketing
• Current: Added Pmax/Demand Gen, paused GDN Remarketing
• Shared budgets: GEO + Bedroom campaigns use shared budget

When to flag:

• Pacing variance >±8%
• Any variance >±10% with <1 week left in month
• Shared budget imbalance (one campaign taking >80%)

Portfolio C

Strategic Context:

• Mid-tier accounts (single metro area)
• Similar constraints to Portfolio B (±8% pacing tolerance)
• 3 accounts total

Accounts:

• Portfolio C - Multi-region (CID: [CUSTOMER_ID])
• ProClean (CID: [CUSTOMER_ID])
• Quick Fix (CID: [CUSTOMER_ID])

When to flag:

• Pacing variance >±8%
• Any variance >±10% with <1 week left in month

Performance Targets by Portfolio

Portfolio A (ROAS Focus)

Campaign ROAS Targets:

• Brand Campaigns: 25-40x ROAS (elite, but capped at 15% spend)
• Performance Max: 15-20x ROAS (workhorse, scalable)
• Demand Gen: 15-20x ROAS (efficient, visual/discovery)
• YouTube/Video: 10-15x ROAS (supporting role)
• GEO/Keyword Campaigns: 5-10x ROAS (acceptable minimum)
• Underperformers: <5x ROAS (candidates for cuts/optimization)
• Money Losers: <1x ROAS (immediate action required)

Format for Portfolio A reports:

• Show ROAS (not "conversion value per cost")
• Example: "16.9x ROAS" (not "$16.90 per $1 spent")

Portfolio B (CPA Focus)

Cost per Conversion Targets:

• Varies by property (based on lease value and market)
• Primary metric: Target CPA (not ROAS)
• Testing ROAS on select accounts as alternative metric
• Campaign hierarchy: Brand (lowest CPA) → Pmax → GEO/Bedroom → Demand Gen

Format for Portfolio B reports:

• Show Cost per Conversion (e.g., "$125 CPA")
• Only show ROAS if specifically testing that metric

When to Use This Skill

Auto-Invoked When:

• Checking if account is on pace
• Analyzing pacing variance
• Investigating underspending or overspending
• Evaluating campaign performance vs. targets
• User mentions "Portfolio A", "Portfolio B", or "Portfolio C"
• User asks "what's the pacing threshold for [portfolio]"
• Creating performance reports or summaries

Data Sources Referenced:

• Your own budget/pacing tracking sheet — one pacing dashboard tab per portfolio (the Pacing Calculation section below shows what it needs to contain)
• Google Ads API: Campaign performance data
• Your own portfolio context files — strategic context and constraints

Budget Management Context (Smart Bidding)

Primary Control Lever: Monthly Budget

• YOU CANNOT MANUALLY ADJUST BIDS with smart bidding (Max Conversions, Max Conversion Value)
• Monthly budget is the primary lever for controlling spend
• Budget increases are conservative: 5-10% monthly increases (not aggressive jumps)

Budget Philosophy Hierarchy:

1. #1 Priority: Hit monthly spend targets (pacing within tolerance)
2. #2 Priority: Maintain acceptable CPA/ROAS goals
3. Algorithm safety: Avoid shocking smart bidding with large changes

Why Conservative Increases (5-10%)?

• Smart bidding algorithms need 3-7 days to ramp up after budget changes
• Large budget jumps risk CPA spikes during adjustment period
• Multiple small increases > one large increase (safer, more controllable)
• Client trust requires predictable, controlled spend changes

Pacing Calculation (Reference)

Data Source: Pacing Dashboard sheet (auto-calculated daily)

Formula:

Pacing Variance = % Through Month - % Spent
 
Where:
- % Through Month = (Current Day ÷ Days in Month) × 100
- % Spent = (MTD Spend ÷ Monthly Budget) × 100

Example:

• Day 21 of 31 → % Through Month = 67.74%
• MTD Spend: $513 / Monthly Budget: $1,000 → % Spent = 51.30%
• Pacing Variance: 67.74% - 51.30% = +16.44% (UNDERSPENDING)

Interpretation:

• Positive variance (+X%): UNDERSPENDING (spent less than expected by now)
• Negative variance (-X%): OVERSPENDING (spent more than expected by now)
• Zero variance (0%): PERFECT PACING (spent exactly as expected)

IMPORTANT: This calculation is already done in Pacing Dashboard sheet (Column E). You don't need to recalculate it manually - just reference the sheet value.

When to Load Other Skills

External pieces you supply yourself: your own portfolio context files (names, pacing rules, client KPIs), your accounts map (account name → CID → portfolio), and your dashboard/sheet config (tab schemas for the pacing data) — all referenced throughout this skill, all replaceable with your own equivalents.

Created: 2025-10-28 Last Updated: 2025-11-01 Status: Active