Skill v1.0.0
currentAutomated scan100/100version: "1.0.0" name: finances description: "Use this skill when the user needs to build a financial model, calculate unit economics, understand MRR/ARR/churn, or figure out their quit number. Covers SaaS metrics, CAC/LTV, burn rate, cash flow modeling, and making unit economics legible for non-finance founders."
SaaS Financial Modeling & Metrics
A SaaS business is a math machine. If you don't know your numbers, you're guessing. This skill makes unit economics legible — MRR, CAC, LTV, churn, burn rate — clear enough to make decisions, rigorous enough to be trusted.
Core Principles
- A SaaS business is a math machine. If you don't know your numbers, you're guessing.
- Unit economics tell the truth about your business long before your bank account does.
- The only financial model that matters for a solo founder is one that fits on a single spreadsheet and gets updated monthly.
- Revenue is vanity. Margin is sanity. Cash flow is reality.
- Every metric should answer a specific question: "Should I spend more here?" or "Is this working?"
The Quit Number
Before building anything, calculate what it takes to replace your income:
Monthly personal burn (after taxes):Rent/mortgage: $______Insurance: $______Food/living: $______Debt payments: $______Everything else: $______Safety buffer (20%): $______= Monthly nut: $______Required MRR to quit:Monthly nut ÷ 0.70 = $______(0.70 accounts for taxes, SaaS costs, and variance)At your target price point ($X/mo):Required MRR ÷ Price = customers neededTimeline:Customers needed ÷ realistic monthly growth rate = months to quit
Reality check: If you need 500+ customers at $29/mo to quit, that's an 18-36 month journey. Plan accordingly.
Personal Constraint Budget
Runway calculation:Current savings available for this venture: $______Monthly burn while building (no revenue): $______Savings ÷ Monthly burn = months of runway: ______Hard deadline: Date you MUST have revenue or go back to employment.Startup costs (one-time):Domain + hosting (year 1): $100-500LLC formation: $50-500Tools (analytics, email): $0-200/moPaid acquisition test: $500-1,000Legal (if needed): $500-2,000= Total launch cost: $______Monthly operating costs (once live):Hosting/infra: $______SaaS tools: $______Email service: $______Payment fees: $______= Monthly opex: $______
Core SaaS Metrics
The Metrics That Matter (and only these)
Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)
MRR = Sum of all active monthly subscription amountsMRR breakdown:New MRR: Revenue from new customers this monthExpansion MRR: Revenue from upgrades/seat additionsContraction MRR: Revenue lost from downgradesChurned MRR: Revenue lost from cancellationsNet New MRR: New + Expansion - Contraction - Churned
Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)
ARR = MRR × 12(Only use this once MRR is relatively stable. Don't annualize your first month.)
Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)
CAC = Total acquisition spend ÷ New customers acquired (in same period)Include: Ad spend, outreach tools, content costs, your time (value it at $0for solo founder or at your opportunity cost — be consistent).By channel:SEO CAC: Content costs ÷ SEO-attributed signupsPaid CAC: Ad spend ÷ Paid-attributed signupsOutreach CAC: Tool costs ÷ Outreach-attributed signups
Lifetime Value (LTV)
Simple LTV:LTV = ARPU ÷ Monthly churn rateExample:ARPU = $49/mo, Monthly churn = 5%LTV = $49 ÷ 0.05 = $980With gross margin:LTV = (ARPU × Gross margin %) ÷ Monthly churn rate
LTV:CAC Ratio
LTV:CAC = LTV ÷ CACBenchmarks:< 1:1 You lose money on every customer. Stop spending.1-3:1 Unsustainable. Improve retention or reduce CAC.3:1 Healthy target for most SaaS.> 5:1 You're probably underinvesting in growth.
CAC Payback Period
Payback = CAC ÷ (ARPU × Gross margin %)Example:CAC = $150, ARPU = $49/mo, Gross margin = 85%Payback = $150 ÷ ($49 × 0.85) = 3.6 monthsBenchmarks:< 6 months: Excellent for solo founder6-12 months: Acceptable> 12 months: Dangerous without funding
Churn Rate
Logo churn (customer count):Customers lost this month ÷ Customers at start of monthRevenue churn (MRR):MRR lost this month ÷ MRR at start of monthNet revenue retention (NRR):(MRR at start + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) ÷ MRR at startNRR > 100% means existing customers grow faster than they churn.Benchmarks:Logo churn < 5%/mo: Acceptable early stageLogo churn < 3%/mo: GoodRevenue churn < 2%/mo: TargetNRR > 100%: Excellent (expansion revenue working)
Unit Economics Calculation
Build this table monthly:
| Metric | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | ... ||---------------------------|---------|---------|---------|-----|| New customers | | | | || Churned customers | | | | || Total customers (end) | | | | || MRR | | | | || Net new MRR | | | | || Revenue (collected) | | | | || COGS (hosting, APIs, etc) | | | | || Gross profit | | | | || Gross margin % | | | | || Total acquisition spend | | | | || CAC | | | | || LTV | | | | || LTV:CAC | | | | || Payback (months) | | | | || Operating expenses | | | | || Net profit/loss | | | | || Cash balance | | | | || Runway (months) | | | | |
Revenue Mix Model
Map your revenue sources:
Primary revenue:Monthly subscriptions: $X/mo × estimated customers = $______Annual subscriptions: $Y/yr × estimated customers = $______Secondary revenue (if applicable):Usage-based overage: Estimated average overage/customer = $______One-time setup fees: $Z × new customers/month = $______Consulting/services: Hours/month × rate = $______Revenue mix target:Recurring %: ____% (target >80%)One-time %: ____% (keep <20%)Services %: ____% (keep <10% — doesn't scale)
Essential Metrics Dashboard
Track weekly, review monthly:
Growth metrics:
- MRR (absolute and growth rate)
- New signups this week
- Activation rate (signups → activated)
- Conversion rate (activated → paying)
Retention metrics:
- Monthly logo churn rate
- Monthly revenue churn rate
- Net revenue retention
Economics metrics:
- CAC by channel
- LTV:CAC ratio
- Gross margin %
- Cash runway (months)
Leading indicators (predict future revenue):
- Traffic to marketing site
- Trial starts
- Feature adoption rates
- Support ticket volume (rising = problems ahead)
Financial Forecasting (Simple)
Don't build a complex model. Use this:
Conservative monthly growth rates by stage:Pre-revenue to $1K MRR: add 5-15 customers/month$1K-$5K MRR: 10-20% MRR growth/month$5K-$20K MRR: 5-15% MRR growth/month$20K+ MRR: 3-8% MRR growth/month3-month forecast:Current MRR × (1 + monthly growth rate)^3 = projected MRRBreak-even forecast:Monthly opex ÷ ARPU = customers needed to break evenCustomers needed ÷ monthly new customers = months to break even
When the Numbers Say Stop
Red flags that mean pivot or stop:
- LTV:CAC < 1 after 3+ months of trying to improve it
- Monthly churn > 10% with no clear fix
- CAC increasing month over month despite optimizations
- Activation rate < 20% (product-market fit problem)
- Revenue plateaus for 3+ months despite active effort
- Cash runway < 3 months with no path to profitability
Related Skills
- accounting — Bookkeeping, tax prep, and financial operations
- pricing — Set prices that support healthy unit economics
- analytics — Track the product metrics that feed financial models
- ads — CAC tracking and paid acquisition budgeting